Day 1 :
Hi-Ryong Byun, Pukyong National University, South Korea
Time : 9:15-10:00
Hi-Ryong Byun had been a Weather Forecaster in Korean Air Force for 19 years. In 1982, he faced and experienced a very hard situation of drought and started to study drought. After separation from Air Force, he became a Professor who taught the Synoptic Meteorology. In Pukyong National University, he wrote many articles on natural disasters like thunderstorms, fogs, typhoons, floods, heat waves, etc., especially more articles on drought and made the EDI (Effective Drought Index). He has acquired many patents that mitigate the damages from disasters. Patents against global warming, drought and algae are his masterpieces.
With a new parameter that synthesizes the precipitation amount and its time intervals, this study would like to show a new research field of water quantity environment. The dangers of flood, drought and land slide etc., are caused not by the precipitation sum but by the Available Water Resources Index (AWRI) that is the remained water that diminished along time pass by runoff and evapotranspiration, etc. after precipitation. To calculate AWRI, only a simple logic that says the longer the time passes after precipitation, the smaller the AWRI becomes is adopted. The differences caused by topography, soil texture and ecosystem etc., can be adjusted using the statistics when necessary. Originally the summation duration of precipitation in AWRI is 365 days because it is the main periodicity of precipitation on the whole world but it is elongated to 365+n-1 when the anomalies of AWRI is consecutively negative or positive for n days and it should be recalculated along revised duration. With the use of AWRI, drought diagnosis became more reasonable by using EDI (Effective Drought Index) and its prediction possible. The big Korean droughts on 2012 and 2015 were predicted at 2008 and it is proved true. Every next year’s May drought became predictable in early October when AWRI showed the maximum. It was also found that over 470 mm/day of AWRI at the Dobong observatory make the Eastern Trunk Road of Seoul inundated. This means early warning of flood-like disasters is possible as soon as precipitation is observed or predicted. Besides, water seasons divided into the little water season and the abundant water season not along the rainy days but along the water quantity and the big spatial differences of water environments were digitized for agricultural use
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia
Keynote: Constraining groundwater flow model uncertainty: Workflow and application to deep low-permeable formations
Time : 10:00-10:45
Dirk Mallants has a background in soil and groundwater hydrology with more than 25 years of experience in characterizing and modeling water flow and contaminant transport in complex environments; typically variably-saturated soils, aquifers and low-permeable porous media including deep clay formations and fractured concretes. He contributed to establishing one of the most extensive datasets on hydraulic conductivity of aquitards. Integrating experimental observations and numerical modeling has always been at the center of his research. His work includes parameterization of pore-scale and field-scale spatial variability in flow and transport properties, modeling processes of water flow and contaminant transport across a range of spatial scales and the evaluation by means of process-based models of management options for water-related environmental pollution problems. He has extensive experience of working across a range of scales to understand dynamics of groundwater systems and the impact of resource extraction on the groundwater resource and groundwater dependent ecosystems.
Large-scale groundwater flow model predictions are generally highly uncertain due to poorly constrained hydrogeologic properties, boundary conditions and geologic layers. The present study demonstrates a generic workflow to iteratively constrain prediction uncertainty by obtaining improved estimates of the most sensitive model components and incorporating them in updated simulations. A case study was developed in which an initially poorly characterized low-permeable formation, a so-called aquitard, was subject to improved characterization resulting in better constrained estimates of hydrogeologic properties. This study used an existing large-scale groundwater flow model in the Gunnedah Basin, New South Wales, Australia as the basis for the quantification of prediction uncertainty. Predictions generated by the flow model included the magnitude and timing of maximum drawdown in a confined aquifer separated from a stressed groundwater system by a sequence of deep aquitards. A global sensitivity analysis revealed the vertical hydraulic conductivity (KV) as one of the most sensitive groundwater system parameters, which was subsequently subject to improved characterization. Porosity-permeability relationships obtained on core samples were combined with downhole neutron-density logs to generate high-resolution vertical KV profiles. These were then up-scaled to the scale of the aquitard formation using analytical and numerical methods. Monte Carlo sampling from hydrogeologic parameter prior distributions was used to estimate the uncertainty of groundwater model predictions before and after improving the characterization of aquitard KV values. Independent estimates of aquitard-scale KV were derived from a 1D transport model interpretation of a profile of natural tracer. Monte Carlo simulations using a spatially uniform aquitard KV model did not considerably change groundwater model predictions. The groundwater model predictions were best constrained when the spatial correlation structure of KV was explicitly accounted for in the Monte Carlo simulations. The workflow allows for an iterative updating of those uncertain parameters to which the model is most sensitive.
Federal University of São Carlos, Brazil
Time : 11:00-11:45
Kelly Cristina Tonello has a graduate degree in Forest Engineering, Master's degree in Forestry Science from the Federal University of Viçosa (UFV) and PhD from the State University of Campinas (UNICAMP). She is a Lecturer at the Federal University of São Carlos/Sorocaba-SP Campus and Collaborating Researcher at the Faculty of Agricultural Engineering (FEAGRI) at UNICAMP. She focuses in hydrology lines, in forest ecosystems, water conservation, river basin management, recovery of degraded areas, forest ecophysiology and payments for environmental services. She is also a Coordinator of the research group on hydrology in forest ecosystems (Hidrolef).
Due to the complexity of the biological interactions with the abiotic factors of the environment, the current focus of the environmental recovery is almost exclusive in the biological component, not knowing at what point during the vegetation development, the restoration contributes to the water maintenance. In what moment and how it will interfere in the water balance of a hydrographic micro basin? This work aims to characterize the behavior of hydrological parameters in forest areas at different stages of restoration by conducting the natural regeneration in order to insert them as a tool to evaluate the restoration. For this, a micro basin was selected, where three plots were demarcated for each treatment with different ages of succession (Treatment 1: 4 years, Treatment 2: 10 years) and a fragment without human interference (Treatment 3: 43 years). The research characterized and evaluated the conditions of natural regeneration through vegetation structure indicators and in each plot, an open precipitation, effective precipitation, throughfall, stemflow and interception was characterized. The vegetation diversity and structure indicated an increasing trend in both number and richness among treatments. The species and families present in each treatment are acting in the process of natural succession. Regarding the hydrological parameters, there were significant differences between the three areas studied. It can be noticed that the interception and stemflow have increasing behavior as the natural regeneration progresses, while the throughfall and the effective precipitation decrease. With the advancement of the natural succession there was an increase in the vegetal parameters and improvement of the soil parameters. On the other hand, the hydrological parameters showed specific behavior for each treatment, indicating that they are able to respond to the state of maintenance and development of the vegetation.
Institute for Scientific Research in Cosmic Anthropoecology, Russia
Time : 14:00-14:45
Trofimov Alexander received a Diploma of the Doctor from Novosibirsk State Medical University in 1973 and Doctor of Medical Sciences in 1998. After that he served in various posts namely ISA professor in 1999, Academician of International Academy Energy-informative Sciences in 2001, Academician of ABI, USA in 2010, General Director and Chief of Scientific Council of International Scientific Research Institute of Cosmoplanetary Anthropoecology (ISRICA), and Chief of Laboratory helioclimatopathology of Science Center of Clinical and Experimental Medicine of Siberian Department of Russian Academy of Medical Science. He also received DSc from Open International University for Complementary Medicine in India in 1998, and is Member of Organizing Committee of conferences of OMICS group from 2014 to 2016. From 1975 till 2010, he wrote more than 300 scientific works, 7 monographs and received 9 patents. His basic research interests are in heliobiology, cosmic anthropoecology, geoecology, geophysics, helioclimatopathology, preventive medicine and investigation of water as a helioprotective mean.
In conditions of continued decrease in induction of the Earth magnetic field, reduction of its buffering properties and corresponding increase in access of solar corpuscular energy flows to biosphere, the problem of surviving of humanity and biotechnological protection of all living on our planet is becoming one of the most actual concerns. The aim of the study was development and approbation of effective non-medicinal helioprotective means on the base of drinking water, widely available to the population of different countries. As a result of scientific research in 2007-2016 such remedy was found–it is water, which has passed a special technological processing in the installations with weakening of the magnetic field of the Earth many times (patent of RF № 2342149) (photos 1,2). It has been shown that drinking water «HELIOSTAR», after its exposure in these conditions, acquires the most important qualities of helio-magneto-geroprotector, Thus the range of new technologies of preventive medicine is replenished by effective non-medicinal helio-heroprotective means, which can reduce helio-dependence of an organism, risks of many heliodependent diseases and rapid speed of human aging. Resource of new type of drinking water should become one of the main elements of the global system of geoecological life-supporting and survival of humanity at modern conditions of cosmoplanetary changes.